Miscarriage Probability
For most normal, healthy women in their first pregnancy, the statistics look like this:
|
Week of Gestation |
Percentage
Likelihood |
|
1-2 (You do not know you are pregnant) |
75% (this includes eggs that never grow past fertilization, and it would have been impossible to know you were pregnant; after implantation, which occurs 7-10 days after ovulation, the odds go down to 31%)2 |
|
3-6 |
10% (after home urine test is positive at 14 days post ovulation when hCG levels reach 50-80)2 |
|
6-12 |
5% (or less if heartbeat heard) |
|
2nd trimester |
3% (considered stillbirth after 20 weeks) |
|
3rd trimester |
No longer considered miscarriage once fetus is beyond one pound (500 grams) around 24 weeks gestation. Stillbirth rate is 1%. |
Statistics for repeat miscarriage
| Situation | Percentage
Likelihood of Miscarriage in Your Next Pregnancy |
| If you had a miscarriage in your first pregnancy | 13% chance of it happening again (up from 10%)1 |
| One miscarriage after having one or more live births | 10% (no more than normal) |
| Two pregnancies and two miscarriages | 40% (you should already be eligible for basic testing)1 |
| Multiple miscarriages with one or more live births | 13% if you are under 35 If you had one healthy child early on and later have several miscarriages in a row, you should seek testing, as your odds may have changed. |
| Three pregnancies and three miscarriages | 60% (you should have testing done after three concurrent miscarriages)1 |
| Four or more miscarriages with no live births | Your odds are as low as 0 to 5%. It's time to stop trying on your own and seek the help of a qualified reproductive endocrinologist or fertility specialist. See the section on causes of miscarriage for more information on what may be causing your losses.42 |
| Maternal age over 35 | If you have healthy children or this is your first pregnancy, and are in good health yourself, there is no reason to worry about an increased risk of miscarriage. It is a fact, however, that eggs begin to deteriorate after age 35 regardless of the mother's health, and a higher rate of miscarriage and babies born with birth defects will occur. Recommended reading if you are over 35 can be found at www.marchofdimes.com. |
| After your first miscarriage, your likelihood of becoming a recurrent miscarrier | 20%6
I don't like this statistic, as it doesn't match the others. But few places will give a number for this. This one comes from Miscarriage, A Woman Doctor's View. |
Statistics on Ectopic Pregnancy
Situation |
Percentage
Likelihood |
No history of ectopics |
2%43 |
| Tube with ectopic removed completely | 9% |
| Tube with ectopic preserved | 12% |
Even though your rate of ectopic is a bit higher when your tube is preserved, you want to keep your tube if you can. It dramatically increases your ability to get pregnant again.